Do You Have a Plan C For Disaster?

In most peoples minds there is a sort of vague idea of what they would do in the event of a life threatening emergency based on their assessment of the risk of such an emergency. This is their plan A

For example in Florida we do have hurricanes which sometimes knock out power for a few days or even weeks and can damage homes so people living here have the idea that is promoted in the media to have a few days worth of supplies to get them through maybe 3-14 days before they expect electricity to be back on and services resuming as before. They don’t expect a hurricane right away so the degree of urgency is low and they might not actually have 2 weeks of supplies but they figure they can beat their neighbors to the grocery store and buy the things they need before their neighbors deplete those supplies. They think they have water in their hot water tanks and a few jugs in the frig and they know they have some canned goods, some cereal and a couple of flashlights and so they are not really needing to prepare much. Maybe every so often they will buy something on impulse that gives them a sense of being prepared like a hand crank radio but basically they already feel they are ready for the worse that might happen to them. The average citizen weighs the risks of a disaster coming “someday” and acts accordingly.

But to continue with the hurricane example say there is an actual hurricane out at sea and forecasts are now calling for it to head straight for them in 5 days as a category 4. Now in this case a certain percentage of the citizenry will move from Plan A to Plan B where they have changed their risk assessment to a higher percentage chance of a disaster befalling them sooner rather than later and so they go out and actually buy the supplies they think they are likely to need in order to get them through two weeks without creature comforts. Plan B is when the threat becomes more imminent but not yet certain (after all Hurricanes often change course and might very well miss them) At this point the stores still have the supplies needed to complete ones plan B list.

Now to continue with the story there will be a certain percentage of people,which depending on the assessment of risk, will find that the worst case that they could imagine has now come to them and they can no longer do Plan A or Plan B because it is two in the morning and they just woke up to a loud noise which is the sound of their trash can smashing into their back door in 75 mph winds as a full blown hurricane is hitting their city dead on as it increases to a category 5. Now the average Joe must resort to PLAN C which is defined as … go with what you got …because there are no more stores open to buy any supplies and the worst disaster that they could fathom is upon them.

Plan C supplies are those that people have when disaster strikes and there is no more time to prepare. Your plan C is not just supplies but include things like knowledge of First Aid, CPR, self defense techniques etc or knowing where your nearest Red Cross emergency center is located.

I have used this analogy of a hurricane as the only threat to have a plan A ,B or C with with A being a far off threat and B being a more imminent threat and C being the actual emergency occurring TODAY. Now I want you to expand your mind and consider your risk meter and whether or not it is realistic or if it may need to be re calibrated for the realities that actually exist in the world today. Are there any other events that are as dangerous to you as a hurricane or even more dangerous? Have you defined those possible dangers and what the actual risk of them happening are? To give you an example about 20 years ago I asked one of my mainstream brothers who works for the federal govt what he thought the odds of a nuclear bomb exploding on American soil in our lifetime was. His answer was the odds were so close to zero that they weren’t even worth trying to calculate. My odds were about 85%. Naturally he has made no preparations for any disaster involving a nuclear explosion in the US whereas since I have calculated the risk as probable in my lifetime I have made some plans for it. So which of us has a more realistic risk meter? That is the million dollar question isn’t it? In order to calculate risk one must have accurate knowledge. My suggestion to you is to start imagining all possible emergencies you might need to prepare for by gathering competing sources of information which must include more than just mainstream sources which have traditionally been very biased. For example the vast majority of mainstream economists have consistently forecast much more rosy economic conditions than have actually come to pass. In fact historically you would be better off over 80% of the time trusting a monkey throwing a dart at a list of individual stocks than to invest in a random mutual fund most of which do NOT outperform simply owning the S and P 500 index. So you MUST read the rosy picture AND the bleak and gloomy and only then decide which is more realistic according to your judgement but if your judgement has not been proven to accurately forecast emergencies very well in the past than wouldn’t it be prudent to consider that you are biased in favor or no emergency happening and therefore you should prepare more than you currently do?

I suggest that if you use Google to search for articles with keywords that define all your possible emergencies than you will have information to counter the historically rosy pictures painted by the mainstream media. For example search for “mandatory vaccinations” or “martial law” or “banking holidays” or “terrorist attack” to name a few and soon you may be changing your assessment of the likelihood of many other types of disasters you may face in the not too distant future. You will have to fight the natural ego urge to deny that which is unpleasant.

When you start to calculate in your mind, after reading both rosy and gloomy sides, the odds of one or more of the countless emergencies you may realistically face actually occurring I submit to you that you will almost certainly find that you are extremely under prepared. I can hear many say your paranoid and you are a fear mongering chicken little but to those I say WHAT IF YOUR WRONG?

I propose to you that if your wrong you may very well DIE AS A RESULT!!!

Other objections likely include the idea that it is too expensive or wasteful to prepare for unlikely emergencies but this is not true either. Consider the Mormons they routinely keep up to a years worth of food and supplies in their homes. Those supplies are not wasted. It is like savings. It is the best life insurance anyone could have. They use the food throughout the year and replenish it at certain times.The same goes for solar equipment or firearms or many other items that could be used for survival as well as in every day life. Buying those items used they will retain their value. If your worst case disaster struck tonight would you have everything you need? What do you think you would need? Have you researched from non mainstream sources in order to determine accurately what your emergency risks really are? You will need to make a list. That is what I call your Plan C list and it should be acquired as soon as possible if you are truly prepared for what lies ahead.

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